Shutdown Threat Looms Large Over NASA; Science Programs Face Cuts
Congress left Washington for their August recess having provided some clarity to NASA’s 2024 budget, but left the threat of a government shutdown hanging over the agency like a dark cloud.
There is a bipartisan consensus in both chambers, the House of Represenatives and the Senate, not to cut the crewed Artemis missions to the Moon, with a wary eye on a rising China being a primary motivator.
However, in a divided Congress with conservative voices calling for deep spending cuts, it appears NASA’s science programs are most at risk. Both the House of Representatives and Senate have proposed budget cuts for NASA this year, but with different programs in the crosshairs.
NASA will face budget cuts next year for certain. But whether or not the space agency will also suffer from a government shutdown remains to be seen.
It is also clear that China has taken notice of NASA’s budget troubles as they prepare their own crewed Moon missions.
Artemis Appears ‘Safe’ From Congress
Earlier this year there was great uncertainty around NASA’s budget as certain conservative House Republicans called for significant non-defense spending cuts across the federal government.
NASA Administrator Bill Nelson was very clear that major cuts to NASA would imperil the Artemis missions, derail key science objectives, and frequently used the threat of a rising China to prod Congress to spare NASA the budget ax.
The Artemis II crew (pictured) will be the 1st humans to travel to the Moon and pass beyond it since Apollo 17 in 1972. Source: NASA.
President Biden proposed a 7% increase for NASA in 2024 that merely kept pace with inflation, meaning “effectively stagnant funding” was the best the space agency was ever going to get this year.
The debt ceiling deal that President Biden and Speaker McCarthy struck in June then set caps for non-discretionary spending (that includes NASA) at 2023 levels, which, due to rapid inflation over the last year, is effectively a budget cut even if the numbers are the same.
Both the Senate and House budget proposals keep NASA at these levels, which is notable given that a number of House Republicans are seeking even deeper cuts to other agencies.
It appears NASA will be spared the worst case scenarios and the Artemis Moon missions have won sustained, bi-partisan support in both chambers in Congress that is immune to even the strongest calls for budget cuts.
Much of this can be attributed to the rising fears in Congress that China will beat the US back to the Moon, a situation almost no elected official will support regardless of political affiliation. NASA Administrator Bill Nelson has repeatedly called out China’s lunar ambitions when testifying in front of Congress, making it clear that NASA sees political value in playing into the ‘Space Race II’ storyline.
NASA Administrator Bill Nelson testifies to Congress in the spring of 2023 in favor of maintaining restrictions on c-operation with China in space. Source: SpaceNews, April 21, 2023.
The Senate budget proposal provides $25 billion for NASA, below the $25.38 billion the agency received in 2023 and significantly less than the $27.185 billion they requested for 2024.
Regarding crewed exploration, the Senate proposal “fully funded Orion, the Space Launch System and ground systems while providing “sufficient funding to continue progress on the Artemis Campaign Development,” including the Human Landing System awards,” (Source: Jeff Foust, Space News.) The cuts from the Senate largely come from NASA’s Science portfolio, particularly the increasingly expensive Mars Sample Return mission.
The House budget proposal “provides $25.367 billion for NASA in 2024, just under the 2023 spending level but again well below the request for 2024. The bill would provide full funding for all exploration programs, at $7.97 billion. Science would get $7.38 billion, $880 million below the request and $415 million less than what they received in 2023,” (Source: Jeff Foust, Space News.) The House has released fewer details about their budget proposal and did not offer a division-by-division breakdown for NASA.
This means that Artemis will likely survive whatever future budget hurdles arise, as the buy-in from Congress appears to be firm enough to withstand tremendous outside pressures. To quote the Planetary Society from their outstanding budget analysis, ”This growth in Artemis within a flat NASA budget clearly demonstrates that Artemis is the nation's top political priority,” (The Planetary Society).
Yet this China-focused lens for Congressional support for crewed missions could be quite problematic in the long-term. What future will Artemis have in the eyes of Congress once it’s returned to the Moon and “beaten” China? What will happen to NASA’s science objectives as budget pressures mount and Congress zeroes in on competition with China?
Science Programs Suffer To Preserve Artemis
Both the House and Senate offer budget visions that see some pain for NASA’s science portfolio, as holding Artemis funding steady while reducing the topline number can only mean pain elsewhere in the budget.
The Senate has clearly taken aim at the Mars Sample Return (MSR) mission to balance the books, while the House has yet to reveal where their pain will be felt.
NASA’s Mars Sample Return mission (pictured) is on the Senate chopping block. Source: NASA.
The Senate is quite clearly concerned about the spiraling costs of the Mars Sample Return mission, and while the President requested $949 million for the mission the Senate is offering up only $300 million. The Senate committee approved very strict language basically demanding NASA keep MSR within its $5.3 billion budget or face significant changes or outright cancellation:
“If NASA is unable to provide the Committee with an MSR lifecycle cost profile within the $5.3 billion budget, NASA is directed to either provide options to de-scope or rework MSR or face cancellation,” (Source: Planetary Society/Senate CJS Committee.)
The House did not complete the committee markup process before the August recess, so there are still many questions about how the hammer will fall on NASA Science in their proposal. Yet based on other parts of their NASA budget that have been released, we should expect a cut similar in size to the Senate’s.
The main question is where the pain will fall. Will the House follow the Senate and slash funding for MSR? Or will they gut another part of the science directorate such as NASA’s climate portfolio, which Republicans have always railed against?
It is clear that NASA’s incredibly impactful New Frontiers program has already faced short-term delays because of the debt ceiling deal, and things could get ugly quickly. Previous New Frontiers missions have included the transformational New Horizons mission to Pluto and the Juno mission to Jupiter.
NASA was preparing to solicit the next round of proposals this October, but that has already been delayed and according to NASA Planetary Science Director Lori Glaze “If the planetary science funding levels that are anticipated as a result of this tight budget environment are actually realized over the next two or so years…it is unlikely we’ll be able to solicit New Frontiers perhaps not before 2026,” (Jeff Foust, Space News, July 27 2023.)
Pluto became a cultural sensation because of NASA’s New Horizons mission. Source: NASA.
That’s a 3-year delay to a flagship NASA exploration program because of budget pressure from Congress. What else could be in store over the next few years?
Government Shutdown Looms, History Offers Bad Lessons For NASA
Every time the federal government has previously shut down, there were a range of negative impacts on NASA. With conservative House Republicans holding firm to demands that will never pass in the Senate, the odds of a shutdown are higher now than any time this year. If the House and Senate cannot negotiate and pass a final budget by September 30th, one of two things will happen:
The first possibility is a Continuing Resolution (CR) that will extend government funding past September 30th until a budget deal can be reached between the two chambers to send to President Biden.
With Republicans holding such a slim 5-seat majority in the House and dozens of conservatives highly unlikely to support it, a CR would require bipartisan support. Previous CRs usually lasted a few weeks or a month and ‘kept the lights on’ so to speak, allowing the parties to try to reach an acceptable compromise.
The second possibility is Congress reaches September 30th with no budget and no Continuing Resolution. At this point there is no Congressional authorization for further spending, and the federal government ‘shuts down’ all non-essential functions.
The cloud hanging over the entire process is the threat some far-right Republicans have made to depose Kevin McCarthy as Speaker if he moves too far to the center in a budget deal with President Biden. This has injected tremendous uncertainty into the dynamics on Capitol Hill that is unlikely to change anytime soon.
The fundamental reality is for a budget to become law it needs to pass the Republican House and the Democratic Senate and then be signed by President Biden, and it’s not clear the political dynamics currently exist that allow that to happen by the end of the year.
Every previous shutdown has disrupted work at NASA, although major impacts would require the agency to be shut down for a considerable amount of time. An Astralytical analysis from earlier this year highlighted the NASA impacts from the last shutdown and it now seems sadly appropriate to revisit it.
The 2018-2019 shutdown was the longest in history, a total of 35 days over the Christmas holiday that sent 800,000 federal workers home and cost the US economy $11 billion dollars.
NASA wasn’t spared. Up to 95% of its workforce was furloughed and sent home. The shutdown had both short- and medium-term impacts on the broader space industry as well, eliminating jobs and reducing momentum in critical sectors.
While there wasn’t a mass exodus, the agency did permanently lose staff, with then-Administrator Bridenstine saying “we did lose people — onesies and twosies — across the agency and even here at headquarters. That is absolutely true.”
The situation with NASA contractors was more complicated, with some being permanently re-assigned to non-NASA work and others never receiving back pay for time worked during the shutdown. The private sector was also hit, with some companies that were highly-dependent on NASA contracts eliminating jobs entirely.
While the private space sector is much larger that it was in early 2019, it’s still highly dependent on NASA contracts. A significant shutdown would also delay activity on numerous NASA missions that are still in development.
There is also the reality that NASA’s workforce has continued to age since 2019. Knowledge transfer and continuity of operations are absolutely essential to NASA. Critical areas such as Safety & Mission Assurance (45% of employees are eligible to retire in the next 5 years) could be vulnerable in a shutdown. Yet another protracted absence could push some employees into early retirement and impact that critical knowledge sharing and continuity.
Large ticket programs that were already funded weren’t affected in 2018 and most delays sorted themselves out within a year or two, but all delays cost NASA money. In an agency that is constantly delaying flagship programs (both the James Webb Space Telescope and Space Launch System missions were years behind schedule before launching), any substantive external delays could add even more time to the clock and red ink on the balance sheet.
NASA is (sadly) better-prepared now to manage another shutdown, with plans in place for furloughed workers. Yet no amount of planning and preparation will eliminate the very real disruptions NASA would experience under another lengthy government shutdown. The potential impacts of a debt default are even more opaque but far more severe and also bear monitoring as 2023 progresses.
A shutdown that lasts a few days or a week would likely only be mildly disruptive to NASA, causing some justified angst from contractors and pain for the NASA workforce. Yet a protracted shutdown that lasts for weeks or longer could begin impacting more significant missions, and a complete breakdown that lasts through the holidays would likely threaten Artemis itself.
Public Attitudes On NASA Show Little Change
It is clear that despite the Congressional budget drama the general public has maintained their support for NASA and their same historical priorities for the space agency. A recent Pew poll surveyed public opinion on a range of NASA and space exploration topics, and the findings were largely in line with historical trends for these questions.
Source: Pew Research Center
More than 50% of Americans support sending humans to the Moon and Mars, and achieving majority support is obviously noteworthy. What is noticeable here is the relative *intensity* in support when compared with other objectives, and then it is quite clear what missions Americans want NASA to focus on.
The most popular objectives (that also garner the least opposition) are asteroid defense and climate monitoring. The least popular objectives (but still over 50%) are the crewed missions, which also garner the greatest levels of opposition.
Roughly 50% of people love everything NASA does. Roughly 15% of people hate it all. The 35% in between appear to be largely Earth-centric and not at all interested in crewed missions to the Moon or Mars.
Yet the reality is that only 1 in 10 Americans put crewed missions to the Moon or Mars as the Top Priority for NASA, at the low end of the totem pole. While Congress may be supporting Artemis to beat the Chinese back to the Moon, it’s clear the American public does not have that at the top of their space priorities list.
Uncertain Future for NASA
Congressional budget dynamics has begun impacting NASA, delaying critical planetary science programs and threatening major changes to the cornerstone Mars Sample Return project. The Artemis crewed Moon missions are safe and on track in terms of Congressional support, and NASA’s science programs will suffer in the meantime.
The threat of a protracted shutdown is looming larger and larger over NASA and the American space economy, and there is no sign that the uncertainty will diminish anytime soon.
Patrick Chase is a space writer, political junkie, and lifelong space enthusiast.
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