Spacecraft Trends and Increasing Opportunities

Seeking a cursory analysis of some of the spacecraft deployments over the past 3.5 years? You’re in the right place.

Orbital rocket launches will not be covered here, although the number of launches continues to grow, despite drawdowns from two major launch companies during the first six months of 2023. 

More Spacecraft Deployed than Ever

Despite that drawdown, the number and varieties of spacecraft deployed are expanding. That expansion is a continuation of increased spacecraft deployments in the three years before 2023.

Those increases have many healthy reasons--opportunities from lower costs, more offerings in satellite buses and sensors, inexpensive and increased launch opportunities, etc.

SpaceX and its Starlink satellite deployments largely drive the spacecraft increases. However, much of the industry’s activities are facilitated through SpaceX’s Smallsat Rideshare program. 

As of 30 June 2023, organizations and nations deployed over 1,600 spacecraft into orbit this year. That spacecraft total almost equals all of 2021’s spacecraft deployments (nearly 1,780). It’s about 800 spacecraft shy of 2022’s total of about 2,430.

Based on the first half of 2023’s spacecraft deployment numbers, if the pace continues through the end of the year, they will beat 2022’s totals.

A timeline comparison demonstrates 2023’s deployments outpacing the previous three years. The 2020 pandemic impacted satellite deployments that year:

 Linking each year end-to-end results in a lumpy rise from 1 January 2020 through 30 June 2023. If all scheduled launches are completed by the end of June 2023, it will be the month with the most satellite deployments in the last 3.5 years.

Based on the frequency of Starlink launches, most of the 1,600+ spacecraft deployed in 2023 so far are part of space-based internet relay communication systems (over 1,150, including OneWeb).

However, other trends through 2023 and previous years demonstrate areas of opportunity for satellite operators.

Identified Trends

First, small satellites (smallsats) are continuing to be deployed in increasing numbers. As of mid-2023, nearly 1,500 spacecraft of 600 kilograms or less were deployed during the year, falling into the category of smallsat operations. That’s close to 2021’s smallsat overall total of nearly 1,700, and 65% of 2022’s total.

Second, most of those smallsats are providing commercial products and services. Nearly 90% of smallsats deployed in 2023 are for commercial missions, slightly less than 2022’s smallsat commercial share of 91% and the ~92% share in 2021. 

Third, despite smallsat limitations, smallsats are increasingly used for a variety of commercial applications.

Setting aside the internet relay services of OneWeb and Starlink, other services from satellites with radar, radio frequency monitoring, the internet of things, ship and aircraft tracking, weather capabilities, and satellite tugs are all increasingly offered by commercial satellite operators.

Many of those applications had never been offered by commercial operators before, although some, such as radar, weather, and ship tracking, have been offered by government satellite operators. 

Fourth, organizations from more nations are using smallsats. By mid-2023, 42 nations had organizations and companies operating smallsats, five more than for the whole of 2022, and six more than 2021.

The diversity of nations behind satellite operations contrasts greatly with the few nations capable of launching rockets. But the possibility of other nations exploring space operations will fuel smallsat usage.  Countries that have traditionally shunned space activities because of high costs will experiment, contributing to smallsat growth.

An important caveat to these observations is money. A reason why startups and companies use smallsats is that the cost and time commitments are less than those required for larger satellites. But smallsats are also orbiting packages of compromises, indicating that the products they provide may not be as magnificent as those offered by their larger competitors. 

The compromised products smallsats provide may be good enough instead of “knock-your-socks-off” good.

Although, there may be some exceptions. Still, such an impression means that the pricing commanded for those smallsat products is correspondingly less. While there’s money to be made in smallsats, it won’t be as much as a single GPS or Viasat 3 satellite demands.

These circumstances—the increased use of smallsats for commercial purposes, increased nations participating in satellite operations, and the increased variety of purposes—indicate that the market in which commercial smallsats are being used is far from settled, despite the dominance of companies in some of the markets, such as remote-sensing. 

Steady Growth in Remote Sensing, with More Opportunities

Remote-sensing satellites are the most prominent example of commercial growth after OneWeb’s and Starlink’s internet contributions, encompassing the second-highest share of spacecraft deployed during the first half of 2023.

Although other categories exist within remote sensing, the following analysis covers the three mission types with the largest shares over the past 3.5 years: satellites with optical, radar, and radio frequency sensors.

Of the remote sensing satellites, those with optical sensors (the kind that Earth observation company Planet uses) took the highest share of smallsat missions by mid-2023, about 8% (~115 smallsats). That is nearly equal to 2021’s overall deployments of smallsats with optical sensors and about 35-40 shy of 2022’s total.

The remainder of smallsats with missions other than optical sensors have about 1.5% or fewer shares each for the first half of 2023. But they have grown and shifted in number as well. In contrast to the high deployments of satellites with optical sensors are the radar satellites. 

Radar satellites are remote sensing satellites, but different from those with optical sensors. Not nearly as many have been deployed, currently or historically. They were government-operated (military and civil) for decades.

One of the European Space Agency’s Sentinel satellites, Sentinel 1, provides free radar data of observed areas to analysts. Radar satellites provide data that can’t be seen in optical products. For example, they show the sinking and sliding of the ground, usually detecting ground elevation changes that are in millimeters. 

Not many ESA radar satellites provided that free data. This lack meant that radar satellites were likely in high demand and that customers had to wait a while for their tasks to be fulfilled.

ESA still uses Sentinel 1, adding Sentinel 6 for sea-level monitoring. Canada operated a few since the mid-1990s (RADARSATS) that provided radar data commercially as well. The nation deployed three new ones a little over four years ago for its RADARSAT Constellation Mission.

But those paltry satellite numbers are changing, largely thanks to commercial companies. 

By mid-2023, 19 radar satellites have been deployed, 16 of which were commercial satellites. The commercial operators’ names are relatively new to space: Capella, Iceye, Piesat, and Umbra.

The year prior, 24 radar satellites were deployed, and in 2021, ~13. After 3.5 years, 64 radar satellites have been deployed, likely far more than radar satellites deployed by governments in previous decades.

Based on the increases during that timeframe for satellites with optical payloads, there’s reason to believe that radar satellites, and their operators, will continue to grow in number as well. 

One type of satellite that doesn’t seem to have a civil government equivalent is the radio frequency monitoring (RFM) satellite. RFM missions appear to require three satellites orbiting in formation to detect and monitor radio frequency emissions from the Earth.

RFM data becomes more useful when it is combined with other space-based products, such as ship tracking, optical overlays, and others. This is not to say that radar and optical satellite products couldn’t benefit from combining with data from other satellite services, but commercial RFM operators appear to embrace that idea readily.

Nearly 20 have been deployed so far in 2023. Fifteen (81%) of those satellites are for commercial missions, with companies such as HawkEye360, Kleos Space, and Unseenlabs operating them. In 2022, 28 RFM satellites were deployed with nearly 60% of them controlled by commercial companies.  Forty-two were deployed in 2021. As in 2022, 60% of 2021’s RFM satellites were commercially operated. 

It's unclear if there’s a market for RFM satellites beyond augmenting military intelligence and aiding government enforcement to protect areas such as no-fishing zones or wildlife sanctuaries. The customers engaged in those activities may still provide a large enough customer base for more competitors and satellites.

But the relatively narrow mission that current RFM satellite companies are identifying as profitable doesn’t seem as flexible as those catered by the radar and optical satellite operators. At the same time, however, the customers these companies are courting are likely to have larger budgets for RFM products and services.

Growth of Other Satellite Missions

Other types of payloads on satellites exist in the remote sensing service category: infrared, hyperspectral, weather (which is a mix of remote sensing tech), and more. But they have yet to be deployed in significant numbers as optical, radar, and RFM satellites.

That indicates more opportunities within the remote sensing market.

Another growing spacecraft category is transportation. Current cargo and passenger spacecraft provide transportation primarily to space stations (either for China or the International Space Station). An exception is the rides offered by SpaceX to those who can afford them.

Cargo and passenger transportation in space continue to be active, but they are not affordable to many people and companies. However, there is a different kind of transportation growing: the satellite tug. 

Satellite tugs transport satellites from a launch orbit to a customer’s desired orbit. They are a response to rideshare programs and seem less expensive than choosing a dedicated smallsat launcher. The growth of satellite tugs is good news for those unwilling or unable to pay for a dedicated smallsat launch.

But their presence also takes away customers that want specific orbits from the dedicated smallsat launch companies. After all, if both offer comparable services, why not go with the less expensive option?

Commercial companies have increased the use of satellite tugs over the past few years, but that growth has been modest when compared with other types of satellite uses such as remote sensing.

D-Orbit, Momentus, and Launcher are a few of the commercial companies operating satellite tugs. As of mid-2023, 10 satellite tugs have been deployed, 90% of which were for commercial missions, over double the four satellite tugs deployed in 2022 and triple the three in 2021. 

Perhaps 2023’s increase is a positive indicator for companies offering satellite tugs, but, for the moment, they rely on SpaceX’s Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy rockets. Satellite tug companies used only those two rockets from the beginning of 2021 through mid-2023. Their products and services depend on SpaceX. Their future market may look brighter once Vulcan and the Ariane 6 are operational.

Those were the more notable spacecraft deployment trends during the past few years, but they don’t cover the gamut of other spacecraft activities.

For example, a few companies have deployed satellites that provide navigation signals, like a GPS or GLONASS satellite, except for explicitly commercial purposes. Others are offering a single satellite to host multiple payloads operated by different companies. There are a variety of weather satellites being deployed for commercial use.

Some companies, such as GHGSat (emissions monitoring) and Satellite Vu (thermal monitoring), are attempting to find and provide alternative space services unavailable before. More companies will tap into creative businesses to create their own opportunities in the space industry.

Maybe they’ll begin combining different payload sensors to create a more useful product—one in which a company can see a product that results from the integration of radar, optical, and navigation data from one company. That product would be more convenient for the customer rather than requiring the customer to hop from company to company.

Increases in spacecraft deployments and diversity of missions don’t guarantee continued growth for the second half of 2023 and on.

However, nearly a quarter of the world’s countries have dabbled in space operations in some way; smallsats have been increasingly relied upon by nations and companies to get access to space; other remote sensing businesses have not deployed as many satellites as those operating optical satellites; and satellite options are less expensive than offerings in the past. 

Those seem to stack the likelihood of continued growth in the spacecraft-provided service market’s favor.

John Holst is the Editor/Analyst of Ill-Defined Space, dedicated to analysis of activities, policies, and businesses in the space sector.

Contact Astralytical for your space industry analysis and insight needs.