Uncertainty Continues to Cloud NASA’s Budget Prospects Amid Speakership Shuffle

To say it has been an interesting few months in domestic American politics would be a colossal understatement. Parsing the impact recent chaos will have on NASA and the American space sector is a far more difficult task.

The Mars Sample Return mission has divided the House and Senate, but Congress has managed to advance other important space policy bills.

New Speaker A Black Box on NASA Issues

It is not possible to quickly describe the 3 weeks of chaos in October that surrounded the Speaker of the US House of Representatives, but here is the long and short.

Former Republican Speaker Kevin McCarthy made a budget and debt ceiling deal with President Biden this summer, angering many right-wing members of his party in Congress. Later in September. McCarthy moved a bi-partisan Continuing Resolution bill to avert a government shutdown, which passed with more Democratic support than Republican.

This was the final straw for a very small band of conservatives who joined with Democrats to “vacate” the Speakership in early October, deposing McCarthy as Speaker, which had never before happened in American political history. It took Congressional Republicans three weeks and four different nominees before Congressman Mike Johnson (R-LA) was elected as the new Speaker. Johnson is a deeply religious and conservative low-profile Congressman from Louisiana with no real national footprint before being elected Speaker. 

Former Speaker Kevin McCarthy (L) and the man who replaced him, Speaker Mike Johnson (R).

The newly elevated Speaker does not have any notable track record on NASA or space policy related issues. His list of Sponsored Legislation and Cosponsored Legislation does not include anything related to space policy, nor does he serve on any Committees or participate in any Caucuses that touch on space policy.

Louisiana is home to a number of prominent NASA facilities, notably the Michoud Assembly Facility (“America’s Rocket Factory”) located in New Orleans. While this may lead to some home state favorability from the new Speaker, his hometown Congressional district in Shreveport is on the opposite side of the state from Michoud.

Speaker Johnson represents a significant portion of Louisiana’s oil industry and has repeatedly questioned climate science, which could become relevant if House Republicans target that portion of NASA’s budget. It would not be a stretch to assume he would find common cause with figures such as Senator Ted Cruz, who earlier this year criticized NASA for their focus on climate research and monitoring efforts. 

Former Speaker Kevin McCarthy was far more invested in the space industry, as he himself represented the Mojave Air & Spaceport in California. He also personally introduced space related legislation, including the STAR Act in September 2023, which “would extend the FAA learning period for regulating human spaceflight until 2031”. The bill was referred to committee and has not seen action since, and its status remains unclear now that McCarthy is no longer Speaker.

McCarthy was easily the most “space aware” Speaker in quite some time, especially when compared with his successor.

It is also noteworthy that NASA Administrator Bill Nelson made his way to Congress in early November. Nelson, a former Senator, was introduced to the new Speaker by Congressman Brian Babin (R-TX), Babin is Chairman of the House Subcommittee on Space & Aeronautics and is a long-time proponent of NASA.

This anecdote demonstrates just how quickly NASA moved to build relationships with the new Speaker, although the substance of this initial conversation was likely brief.

Source: Twitter (X) @JakeSherman

With the volume of budgetary and global crises facing the new Speaker, it is unlikely that he will be highly engaged with NASA priorities or space-related legislation in the near future.

This dynamic, combined with his complete lack of background on space policy, would likely indicate that the relevant Committees will become more important in shaping space policy for the remainder of this Congress.

Budget Bullet Train Still Barrels Forward

The Speaker drama on Capitol Hill was only heightened by the rapidly approaching budget deadline. The original deadline was set for Friday November 17th. Congress lost valuable time during the “lost” three weeks electing a new Speaker that could have been spent on budget priorities.

Even the prospect of another Continuing Resolution (CR) was complicated, with the new Speaker floating the idea of a “laddered CR”. Unlike CRs in previous years, this split approach would fund certain departments for one length of time and others for a longer period of time.

This novel approach eventually passed the House on Tuesday, November 14th, with overwhelming support from House Democrats and significant opposition from House Republicans, 40% of whom voted against it. 

The bill would extend the deadline for bills covering Military Construction and Veterans Affairs; Agriculture, Rural Development and Food and Drug Administration; Energy and Water Development; and Transportation, Housing and Urban Development until January 19th, and for the eight remaining bills (including the one covering NASA) until February 2nd. This bill maintained funding levels at current levels without cuts and did not include any “policy riders” or funding for Israel or Ukraine.

Despite the CR not containing any budget cuts or conservative policy priorities, the new Speaker is receiving more leeway from conservatives than his predecessor, despite moving the funding bill quickly and over strong opposition from groups like the Freedom Caucus. While tensions within the House GOP remain high, Johnson maintains more trust and ideological similarity with the conservative opponents, guaranteeing the security of his gavel (for now).

Recently the House Republican majority has had to pull two separate funding bills from the floor because they lacked the votes to pass. While these bills didn’t relate to NASA specifically, pulling the bills indicates that internal Republican divisions persist after McCarthy’s ouster.

The Commerce, Justice, and Science bill (that includes NASA funding) actually failed on the House floor on November 15th, with conservative Republicans joining with Democrats to block consideration of the bill by denying the rule necessary to bring it to the floor for a full vote.

The relevant House and Senate committees have managed to move forward some NASA related spending bills. In early November the House Appropriations Committee revealed the details about the House’s proposed NASA budget, which is part of the broader Commerce, Justice, and Science spending bill. 

While the proposal would fully fund the Mars Sample Return mission (unlike the Senate bill), it would prohibit co-operation with the European Space Agency on the upcoming ExoMars rover. The bill would also reduce funding for NASA’s Earth science, astrophysics, and heliophysics division.

If these cuts materialize, NASA has already made clear it would have to explore reducing funding for flagship telescope missions like Hubble and Chandra.

The White House has made clear that President Biden would veto this bill if it ever managed to pass the full House and Senate and become law. The NASA-specific language had some unusually positive remarks.

The official White House statement (H.R. 5893 — Commerce, Justice, Science, and Related Agencies Appropriations Act, 2024) said “The Administration appreciates the bill’s strong support for the Artemis program of lunar exploration. The Administration looks forward to continuing to work with the Congress to support NASA as it returns to the surface of the Moon with commercial and international partners, and paves the way for a crewed mission to Mars.”

The statement also voiced “concern” about the proposed $400 million cut to NASA’s Science portfolio, and also opposed the proposed $55 million cut to the Office of STEM engagement.

Congress has now left Washington for the Thanksgiving holiday, meaning no new progress will be made on NASA’s budget until at least early December.

With dueling proposals from the House and Senate regarding Mars Sample Return, a new laddered Continuing Resolution, and conservative lawmakers still unhappy, tremendous uncertainty remains regarding what NASA’s final 2024 budget will look like.

Congress Slowly Advances Other Space Related Bills

While the budget fights suck up much of the oxygen, Congress has been moving forward with other space-related pieces of legislation.

A new commercial space bill was introduced in early November by Congressman Brian Babin (R-TX) and Congressman Frank Lucas (R-OK). The bill is aimed at streamlining much of the regulatory environment for the commercial space, including elevating the Office of Space Commerce to be the sole authorizer for the flight certification process. It would also require all US launches to have a plan to mitigate space debris and extends the FAA’s moratorium on new rulemaking for commercial space activities until 2031.

As of right now the bill does not have a Senate sponsor, making its future in that chamber uncertain.

There was also a new bi-partisan space bill introduced in the House by Congressman Tom Kean (R-NJ) and Congresswoman Suzanne Bonamici (D-OR). The bill (if passed) would direct NASA to “establish a program to identify, evaluate, acquire, and disseminate commercial Earth remote sensing data and imagery in order to satisfy the scientific, operational, and educational requirements of the Administration, and for other purposes.”

The bill was only introduced on November 3rd and was referred to the House Committee on Science, Space, and Technology. It currently has no Senate companion. 

There was also action in the Senate, with the ORBITS Act passing by unanimous consent. The bill would establish a first-of-its-kind demonstration program targeted at cleaning up space debris. The bill had a diverse range of bi-partisan sponsors, including Senators Maria Cantwell (D-WA), John Hickenlooper (D-CO), Cynthia Lummis (R-WY), Roger Wicker (R-MS), and Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ). 

This demonstrates a broad ideological and partisan agreement in the Senate around the growing risks of space debris. It remains to be seen if the ORBITS Act will be taken up by the House, as a similar bill passed the Senate last year and never received a vote in the lower chamber.

The Senate also passed the Launch Communications Act by unanimous consent, with a similar bi-partisan list of sponsors. 

Hope on Venus, Despair on Mars

There is good news for Venus lovers and bad news for Mars maniacs amid all of the budget wrangling in Congress.

The House budget proposal includes language that directs NASA to fully fund the VERITAS mission to Venus. The mission was delayed for 3 years earlier this year as a repercussion of the delays to the Psyche mission at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory. This House budget move indicates the mission has supporters in Congress, giving new life to a long-beleaguered Venus science community that feared the mission was dead.

Artist’s concept of NASA’s Veritas mission to Venus. Source: Wikipedia/JPL.

The Mars community was treated to far worse news when NASA announced a “pause” on the Mars Sample Return mission. This comes after an Independent Review Board found that the mission had very little chance of staying within budget and the Senate sent up a huge red flag about cost overruns in their NASA budget proposal. While this is a pause not a cancellation, it is clear the mission is struggling to stay remotely close to its budget targets and Congress cannot agree on future support for the mission while this is the case.

Visualization of the NASA/ESA Mars Sample Return architecture. Source: JPL

These apparent reversals of fortune demonstrate the ups and downs of planetary exploration, especially when Congressional whims are added into the mix.

American Public Opinion on Space Exploration Remains Static

The general public has long had a positive yet relatively superficial opinion of NASA and space exploration more broadly. A significant majority of the public believes NASA is a net benefit to society and applaud their history of daring missions, but they have little direct connection to space exploration and rarely place it anywhere near the top of their policy priority list.

Recent public polling from 2023 does very little to change that perspective.

A Pew Poll from July 2023 offered very little evidence that Americans have changed their views on space exploration or have been impacted by Congressional budget wrangling that has impacted NASA’s fortunes.

Source: Pew July 2023

This data makes it clear that public priorities for NASA have not changed appreciably in the last year. Americans still strongly favor more Earth-centric objectives for NASA such as asteroid defense and climate monitoring, and place the lowest priority on crewed missions to the Moon and Mars.

It’s unclear what events would substantially alter public views on space, but it is clear that none of them happened in 2023.

NASA Heads into Highly Uncertain 2024

The major takeaway from all the intense drama in Congress is that NASA’s 2024 budget outlook remains highly uncertain and that shutdown risks have not completely abated.

The House and Senate do not agree on how to handle the Mars Sample Return cost overruns, and the topline numbers for NASA’s budget will likely be decided at the end of the relevant Continuing Resolution in February.

Through it all public attitudes towards space have not really changed in 2023, with the American public still expressing favorable opinions on space exploration but giving it a low priority ranking when compared with other issues.

After a year of high drama surrounding the budget and a number of questions about the flagship Mars Sample Return mission, NASA can really only count on one thing heading into 2024.

Uncertainty.

Patrick Chase is a space writer, political junkie, and lifelong space enthusiast.

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