Mars Polling Archive Demographic Analysis: Part I
Mars is omnipresent when it comes to space exploration. Mesmerizing our night skies since the dimmest days of prehistory, it now occupies an outsized center of gravity in our modern space consciousness.
Mars is the heart of NASA’s search for life as well as an impressive array of increasingly advanced orbiters, landers, rovers, and now a helicopter.
Mars has steadily risen in prominence in the public eye thanks to awe-inspiring missions like the Perseverance rover as well as the success and media impact of Elon Musk and SpaceX. It is the only remotely habitable planet close to Earth where we may even conceive of building up a second foundation for human civilization and a safe haven for the unique biology of Earth.
The American public holds fluid views of Mars exploration, often indifferent yet with hardcore supporters and opponents. Overall, exploring Mars appears to be becoming increasingly popular. Rising intensity in public support for Mars exploration could have transformational impacts for support in Congress and the wider American space policy-making agenda.
There is a significant body of public polling available that enables a detailed analysis of public opinion of Mars while revealing critically important questions for future research.
This Astralytical polling analysis is intended to be useful for legislators, policy advocates, and private businesses that are involved in Mars related research and investment.
Sources
This analysis utilized 13 separate public polls taken from June 2018 through July 2023, although Gallup polling references data as far back as 1969. As always much thanks and appreciation to the firms who conducted this vital work.
Based on the initial analysis conducted in the Mars Polling Archive Overview, it is now possible to break down the data further and discuss the demographic characteristics of American public opinion concerning Mars.
This deeper dive attempts to understand how different groups of Americans approach the subject of Mars exploration: their motivations and reasons for supporting Mars exploration (or not). This deeper understanding of how people are thinking about Mars will start to reveal their concerns and their hopes, their fears and their expectations, painting a full picture of the American public perspective on Mars exploration.
This demographic analysis breaks down the following dimensions in as much detail as possible, but be aware the sample size is limited in some areas. Please note that when working with subgroups in polling data such as this, the variability increases significantly. This type of detailed analysis is best for identifying persistent gaps or trends in the data rather than assigning specific percentages to various groups or responses.
The full analysis is broken down into the following sections:
Part I - Age, Partisanship & Ideology, Education
Part II - Race & Ethnicity, Family Status, Religion
Part III - Gender, Income, Geographic Region
This is Part I of this detailed analysis. Find the introductory Astralytical report here.
Age
There is significant variation in views towards Mars exploration based on age and generation. The younger the person, the more likely they are to favor Mars exploration in pretty much every way, shape, and form.
YouGov July 2021. Do you favor or oppose the United States sending astronauts to Mars?
YouGov July 2022. How likely do you think it is that NASA will meet its goal of getting people to Mars by 2040?
Quinnipiac May 2021. If the Moon or Mars was colonized in your lifetime, would you want to travel there?
YouGov May 2021. Would you want to live in a Mars colony?
YouGov February 2021 What comes closest to your current view of life on Mars?
Gallup June 2019. Would you favor or oppose the United States setting aside money for the project of landing astronauts on Mars?
Pew June 2018. Should sending astronauts to Mars be a top priority for NASA?
Millennial 20% Yes
Gen X 19% Yes
Boomer 14% Yes
Morning Consult February 2021. How important of a priority should it be for the US government to send human astronauts to explore Mars?
All Americans
7% - A top priority
26% - Important but lower priority
39% - Not too important of a priority
16% - Should not be done
12% - Don’t know
Groups that overperformed in “A top priority” & “Important Priority” (33%)
41% 18-34
39% 35-44
27% 45-64
28% 65+
36% Gen Z (1997-2012)
42% MIllennials (1981-1996)
32% Gen X
27% Boomers
There are a number of significant conclusions to draw from this data:
Younger Americans are far more supportive of every facet of Mars exploration, repeatedly appearing far more favorable towards the government funding a crewed mission and expressing much more willingness in traveling to Mars themselves. Younger Americans also may be becoming more “pro-Mars” over time, but this requires additional data to confirm.
On some questions, the gaps between the oldest and youngest Americans on questions of traveling to and living on Mars appear to be some of the widest in space related polling.
There are a number of fascinating questions moving forward regarding generational views on Mars exploration.
Is this wide generational gap a recent phenomenon, or has it always existed to some degree?
Do these age gaps persist in other dimensions such as gender, education, and income?
Are these relatively high levels of support for Mars with younger Americans durable or do they fall off with time as people age?
Conclusion: Age may be one of the single most significant variables in shaping views towards Mars exploration.
Partisanship & Ideology
When it comes to Mars exploration, there is more partisan agreement than would perhaps be expected in these polarized times. There do appear to be minor shifts between partisanship (Democrat v. Republican) and ideology (liberal v. conservative), and it’s important to remember that Party identification and ideology are not a 1:1 match.
Quinnipiac May 2021. If the Moon or Mars was colonized in your lifetime, would you want to travel there?
YouGov February 2021. What comes closest to your current view of life on Mars?
Gallup June 2019. Would you favor or oppose the United States setting aside money for the project of landing astronauts on Mars?
Pew June 2018. Should sending astronauts to Mars be a top priority for NASA?
Democrats 18% Yes
Republicans 16% Yes
Morning Consult February 2021. How important of a priority should it be for the US government to send human astronauts to explore Mars?
All Americans
7% - A top priority
26% - Important but lower priority
39% - Not too important of a priority
16% - Should not be done
12% - Don’t know
Groups that overperformed in “A top priority” & “Important Priority” (33%)
36% Democrats
35% Republicans
(29% Independents)
43% Democratic Men
(30% Democratic Women)
35% Independent Men
(25% Independent Women)
40% Republican Men
(28% Republican Women)
36% Liberals
33% Conservatives
33% Moderates
Pew July 2023. At the other end of the spectrum, relatively few Democrats and Republicans place top priority on sending human astronauts to the Moon (12% and 13%) or Mars (12% and 10%).
There are a few conclusions to be drawn from this data:
People of all parties and ideological persuasions are generally favorable towards funding for a crewed mission, but Independents appear to favor it less strongly than either Republicans or Democrats.
Independents appear to be more likely to believe life never existed on Mars (although still not a majority). The reasons for this are not clear.
Independents appear to be more likely to say they would travel to Mars themselves, while Democrats appear to be the least likely.
There is a clear gender gap within all three political groups, with men of all political persuasions more favorable to Mars exploration.
These conclusions lead to a number of interesting questions for the future that could have profound impacts on how Mars policy is shaped by elected policymakers in the years ahead.
What has the partisan landscape been like historically?
What explains the unique place Independents seem to hold, less likely to believe in life on Mars or prioritize funding the mission, but more likely to take the trip than Democrats or Republicans?
Are there any indications rising polarization in American politics has impacted views on Mars, and how likely is it in the future?
Conclusion: There are modest variations in views on Mars exploration based on partisanship, with Independent’s appearing more skeptical of life on Mars or funding missions to explore it but more willing to take the trip themselves.
Education
There is some data to suggest some correlations between educational attainment and views on Mars exploration. This initial analysis reveals some tentative conclusions as well as a number of important follow up questions.
YouGov May 2021. Would you want to live in a Mars colony?
Gallup June 2019. Would you favor or oppose the United States setting aside money for the project of landing astronauts on Mars?
Pew June 2018. Should sending astronauts to Mars be a top priority for NASA?
High School Diploma 20% Yes
Some College 16% Yes
College 16% Yes
Post-graduate 16% Yes
Morning Consult February 2021. How important of a priority should it be for the US government to send human astronauts to explore Mars?
All Americans
7% - A top priority
26% - Important but lower priority
39% - Not too important of a priority
16% - Should not be done
12% - Don’t know
Groups that overperformed in “A top priority” & “Important Priority” (combined 33%)
38% Bachelor's degree
39% Post-graduate
32% < college
There are a few conclusions to draw from this data:
The higher degree of education a person has received, the more likely they are to support funding a crewed mission to Mars.
The higher degree of education a person has received, the less likely they are to want to travel to Mars themselves.
Belief in whether Mars should be a “priority” is slightly correlated with higher education, but less so than on other questions.
This data reveals a cloudy correlation between higher levels of education and higher levels of support for Mars exploration, and it may indeed be a negative correlation for willingness to travel to Mars personally. There are some pertinent follow up questions to ask about education and support for Mars exploration.
Do these trends verify when compared to a larger dataset?
Is there any historical data available that would show how these trends may have changed with time?
If these trends are accurate, why? What motivates someone with higher levels of formal education to be more inclined to support funding a crewed mission to Mars while making them less likely to want to make the trip themselves?
Conclusion: There are some correlations between level of formal education and support for various aspects of crewed Mars exploration. The sample size is small, but it appears with greater levels of formal education comes higher support for funding a mission to Mars, but less interest in joining such a mission.
Final Thoughts
It is clear some variables are better predictors of a person's interest and support for Mars exploration than others. A quick recap of the conclusions reached after looking at the detailed polling data for age, political partisanship & ideology, and education:
Conclusion: Age may be one of the single most significant variables in shaping views towards Mars exploration, with younger Americans oftentimes expressing views far more favorable to exploring the Red Planet.
Conclusion: There are modest variations in views on Mars exploration based on Partisanship & Ideology, with Independent’s appearing more skeptical of life on Mars or funding missions to explore it but more willing to take the trip themselves.
Conclusion: There are some correlations between level of formal Education and support for various aspects of crewed Mars exploration. The sample size is small, but it appears with greater levels of formal education comes higher support for funding a mission to Mars, but less interest in joining such a mission.
It is clear that Age is a highly important factor in shaping attitudes towards Mars, but whether this has always been the case or is a recent phenomenon remains to be seen. It is also clear that political partisanship & ideology and education also play some role in shaping perceptions, although not to the same degree of variation seen in the age dimension.
Astralytical polling analysis such as this is highly useful for legislative and business stakeholders with long-term interests in advancing a space exploration agenda. It is also instructive for the broader space community relating to public perception of key policy goals like a crewed mission to Mars and is helpful in calibrating outreach and public media approaches.
Patrick Chase is a space writer, political junkie, and lifelong space enthusiast.
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