In early March 2024, 60 Minutes released a piece about NASA’s Artemis plans. It ended with a surprise pronouncement from Blue Origin’s John Couluris: Blue Origin's Blue Moon version 1 should be touching down on the lunar surface as early as January/February 2025 or as late as June/July 2025.

Considering Blue Origin’s current circumstances and history, Couluris’ Blue Moon prognostication seems overly ambitious. One reason to approach his statements with caution is Blue Origin’s slow development pacing, which is deeply steeped in its company culture. Because of this pacing, Blue Origin’s history, aside from New Shepard, is a trail of missed goals.

Humans have plenty of time and money to prepare for lunar exploration. But our knowledge of the Moon? We could do better, but it’s not for a lack of effort.

Despite humanity’s well-advertised visits to the Moon, the total number of days humans have lived on our satellite’s surface is about 11. The Apollo 17 mission took the most of those days—three—as Eugene Cernan and Harrison Schmitt crammed in as much exploration and experimentation as they could, occasionally singing as they worked. Three days—that’s not a lot of time for even the most scripted research and exploration schedule.

Astrobotic’s Mission One was one of a new slew of NASA-funded commercial enterprises fixated on the Moon to provide lunar transportation and facilitate exploration. Expectations for the mission were high, especially after ULA’s Vulcan launch, which lifted off without a hiccup.

Instead, Peregrine’s “propulsion anomaly” made it a lunar lander that couldn’t land. The lander eventually traveled back to Earth, where it re-entered the Earth’s atmosphere and harmlessly disintegrated.

While the anomaly was mission-ending, it shouldn’t be surprising. Commercial startups conducting lunar activities is a relatively new concept, with corresponding inflated expectations. The Gartner Hype Cycle usefully illustrates where the commercial lunar exploration industry is within the cycle.

Japan is one of the most advanced spacefaring nations on Earth and is poised to continue playing a leading role in 21st century space exploration. The US, China, Russia, and India are leading a renewed geopolitical surge outward to the Moon and beyond and Japan is quietly but firmly in the mix.

With decades of experience and a highly mature space economy to lean on, Japan is a major space power jockeying for influence and opportunity in this new space age.