Is the American Space Sector Ready for Climate Change?
The summer of 2023 witnessed the rising impacts of an increasingly warming planet, and no part of human society was spared. Rampant floods across the world, record coral bleaching, and sea surface temperature anomalies were just some of the latest manifestations of a rapidly changing climate.
NASA has long played a leading role in understanding our home planet's atmosphere and how human society is changing it.
It launched the world’s first weather satellite, Tiros 1, in April of 1960. In the 1980s, it began a full study of the Earth as a comprehensive system. NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies, located at Columbia University, has been studying Earth’s atmosphere in detail since 1961.
So it’s fair to say NASA knows what it’s talking about when it comes to Earth’s climate and weather.
It’s clear the world is warming. NASA officially measured July 2023 as the hottest single month since record keeping began in 1880, which was quickly followed by the hottest August ever recorded. NASA data shows a noticeable rise in positive temperature anomalies since the 1970s.
NASA’s Climate Change: Vital Statistics page captures data on many of the major variables that indicate the scope of human impact on Earth’s climate. Some of the key “vital signs” that they monitor include Ocean Warming, Carbon Dioxide, Methane, Ice Sheets, Sea Level, and Arctic Sea Ice Minimum Extent.
All of these indicators show strong signs of impacts from anthropogenic (human-caused) climate change.
The following graph shows the spike in global methane levels beginning in the early 1800s, backed up by ice core data followed by direct air sampling. It is important to note air sampling data reinforcing ice core data, validating the results of both measurements.
NASA has been collecting top-notch climate data since the beginning of the Space Age. All of it indicates significant changes underway throughout Earth’s climate. These changes are reverberating throughout our society, and the space economy is not immune.
There are numerous climate challenges on the horizon for NASA and the private space ecosystem and it’s not clear they are ready for them. Growing partisan polarization about NASA’s climate mission adds additional complications in forecasting how the American space ecosystem will respond to the threats of climate change.
NASA Has Plans For Climate Change. Are They Enough?
NASA is no stranger to severe weather impacts at facilities across the US, having experienced numerous close calls in recent years. The agency has also demonstrated awareness of the threats of sea level rise and has engaged in some mitigation measures. Sea level rise poses a particular threat to American launch infrastructure as much of it is located directly on a coastline.
The space agency is no stranger to severe weather and hurricanes, with numerous facilities taking direct and indirect hits from tropical systems over the years. The following image shows damage to NASA’s Michoud Assembly Facility in New Orleans after a hit by Hurricane Ida in 2021.
Image Source: NASA
2023 saw some of the hottest Gulf water temperatures on record, which only provides more fuel to any potential tropical systems that develop there.
Sea level rise poses a direct risk to numerous NASA facilities. The following data reveals a sea level rise of over 200 millimeters (just shy of 8 inches) since 1900, with recent satellite data reinforcing historical tide gauge data.
Image Source: NASA.
A 2022 analysis from the NASA Sea Level Change Team projected an average sea level rise of 12 inches by 2050 for the US East Coast. The following graphic depicts the projected flooding near NASA facilities that will occur with 12 inches of sea level rise. This includes the vitally important launch infrastructure at the Kennedy Space Center.
Image Source: NASA
A 2019 analysis found significant future flood risk to a number of key launch pads at KSC, particularly the historic Launch Pad 39A that is currently leased by SpaceX. The analysis found that by 2060 the pad would experience ‘chronic’ annual flooding (10% risk of a flooding event) without significant mitigation efforts.
NASA has been taking preventative measures since 2020 to guard against this increasing risk from sea level rise. At this stage this primarily involves annual operations to build up and reinforce the sand dunes along the Atlantic coastline, where tens of thousands of pounds of sand are brought in to prevent erosion and ward off the rising seas.
The following image from NASA shows the area the agency is looking to reinforce with sand build up and vegetation planting to provide stability. The area rises only a few feet above sea level between the ocean and the launch pad in the distance.
Image Source: NASA
A Kennedy Space Center Master Plan from 2021 revealed some of the long-term planning that NASA is looking at to build up the launch pads. This particular plan projected the need to spend tens of millions of dollars reinforcing critical roadways to keep the pads open and operational as much of the surrounding lowlands are eventually flooded by slowly rising seas. NASA forecasts that by 2100 every road at the Kennedy Space Center will require active mitigation to remain above sea level.
Image Source: NASA
There are efforts underway at other coastal NASA facilities to prepare for rising seas. Agency centers in Houston, New Orleans, Virginia, and California have all been reinforcing existing buildings and even demolishing buildings in the highest-risk zones.
NASA’s Johnson Space Center has taken measures that include, “(installing) flood resistant doors, increased water intake systems, and raised guard shacks so that important operations like mission control and astronaut training are less likely to be affected by flooding.”
NASA is expecting a foot of sea level rise in the next 25 years or so that will cause significant impacts at multiple coastal facilities, including the historic Kennedy Space Center launch complex. They will need to spend an increasing percentage of its budget on climate mitigation efforts, and with Congress already tightening the purse strings it is unclear how this growing cost will impact other agency priorities in the years ahead.
Is SpaceX Ready For Rising Waters At Boca Chica?
While it is clear NASA is making climate change preparations at facilities across the US, it is unclear whether SpaceX has similar plans for their primary test and launch facility at Boca Chica, Texas.
Using the NOAA Sea Level Rise Viewer it’s possible to project what a similar 12 inch rise in sea levels will bring to the coastal facility. The image below is a current satellite image of the site.
Image Source: NOAA Sea Level Rise Viewer
This image is the projection with 12 inches of sea level rise, which SpaceX should expect at the site by 2050. Notice much of the marshlands surrounding the main facility are now completely underwater and the main road to the site is now barely above sea level.
Image Source: NOAA Sea Level Rise Viewer
It isn’t clear if SpaceX has long-term mitigation plans like NASA does at KSC, but it’s clear that Boca Chica will not be spared the risks of rising seas.
Growing List of Climate Challenges Impacting Entire Space Industry
While coastal flooding at major American launch sites obviously tops the list of space sector climate risk, it is by no means the only impact worth mentioning.
The space sector is uniquely exposed to projected future increases in extreme temperatures, as the following side-by-side graphic illustrates. Much of the American space economy and most of our major spaceports are located in the southern portions of the country, the same regions that will experience much more extreme heat days in the years ahead.
Extreme heat has both human and technological impacts. People who work outdoors or in non-temperature controlled areas (say, at a rocket factory and spaceport in south Texas) are at risk of significant health impacts or even death if they spend extended periods of time exposed to such temperatures. Extreme heat can also impact mechanical processes, such as when excessive temperatures this summer shuttered numerous oil refineries along the US Gulf Coast.
Everyone is aware of the severe supply chain issues that have dogged the economy for the last few years. Climate change will offer additional challenges in the years ahead. For example, recent years have seen flooding rains disrupt the global semiconductor production network multiple times. A warming world is also a stormier world, and space companies will not be immune to the rising risks of more frequent and intense bouts of severe weather.
Space sector companies should be mindful of these rising challenges and be proactive in preparing for them. Building up resiliency at existing production facilities, developing wellness plans for at-risk staff, and ensuring redundancy in supply chains are actions that space companies can take today that will help prepare for climate change impacts in the future.
Partisanship Percolates Public Perceptions of NASA’s Climate Role
An Astralytical analysis of public polling data related to NASA and space exploration found conflicting data points regarding public opinion of NASA’s climate mission. While climate monitoring generally ranks among the top 3 priorities the public sets for NASA, it is one of the only issue areas where partisan divisions appear.
A 2023 Pew poll found that half of Americans name climate monitoring as their top priority for NASA, second only to the share that favor asteroid defense. However it is important to note that this is a downward shift from the 63% of respondents who named it as a top priority in 2018, a notable 13% decline.
The Pew data reveals a stark partisan gap on the climate question that is completely unique among public views of NASA. Every issue priority surveyed has a partisan gap less than 13%, but the climate question has a yawning 39% gap, with 69% of Democrats naming it a top priority compared to just 30% of Republicans.
This partisan gap has manifested in Congressional debates over NASA funding as well. Earlier this year Senate Republicans publicly criticized the Biden Administration over new climate change regulations implemented at NASA, claiming they were “distracting” the agency.
NASA climate funding was regularly under threat during the Trump Administration, and it is unlikely that the partisan warfare surrounding this subject will subside anytime soon.
NASA’s climate mission remains a top priority for the American public, but underneath that is a growing partisan gap. This division has manifested itself in NASA budget debates in Congress and could become an issue when NASA moves to spend more and more money mitigating the impacts of climate change.
Uncertain Future Ahead
NASA is already planning for significant climate change impacts on their operations in the years ahead, at no small cost to an agency that is no stranger to tight budgets. The private sector should heed that example and invest in resiliency and adaptation measures now.
While the American public broadly supports NASA’s climate work and sees it as a worthy priority for the agency, there is a clear partisan gap with Republicans becoming more strongly polarized against NASA’s climate portfolio.
There are no signs that climate change is slowing down. Indeed there are growing signals that it is accelerating towards very significant tipping points. There are concerns about ice sheet instability in Antarctica and Greenland, methane leakage from northern permafrost, and the systemic ecological collapse of large parts of the Amazon rainforest.
Crossing any one of these tipping points could send unpredictable shockwaves throughout society, and the space ecosystem would certainly feel the downstream impacts.
There are more immediate climate change impacts coming for NASA and the space sector including more extreme heat and rising sea levels. NASA’s own wealth of data reinforces the reality of these risks, and they have begun planning accordingly.
The rest of the space sector should heed their example and begin fortifying their operations against the challenges ahead.
While climate change may not have been a major area of focus for NASA and the space sector in years past, it will be harder and harder to ignore in the years ahead.
Patrick Chase is a space writer, political junkie, and lifelong space enthusiast.
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