The (Growing) Business of Observing the Blue Marble
Ignoring the Blue Marble
As a teenager, I was (marginally) aware of only one image of the Earth from space: the Blue Marble.
Taken in December 1972 by NASA Apollo Astronaut Harrison Schmitt on his way to the Moon, the image is iconic for many people. At the time, I wasn’t aware of the story.
Yes, the first Landsat satellite (deployed in 1972) provided imagery, but the Earth imagery it collected didn’t get the nerd-out the Blue Marble received. Reconnaissance satellites collected images, but I wasn’t really into any related program then. Also, as a teenager, I wasn’t interested in knowing the number of ICBMs the Soviets had.
The Blue Marble image was something I remember seeing on magazine covers such as Time or National Geographic. That was my experience. Even though the picture was supposed to have inspired a generation of people to perceive the smallness and rarity of Earth in the cosmos (the “overview effect”) represented in the Blue Marble, I wasn’t one of those.
The Earth observation industry has changed from half a century ago to the present day. The number of cameras in orbit accomplishing some kind of Earth observation/remote sensing (EO/RS) mission has grown from that one camera held in an astronaut’s hands.
While a person taking a picture of the Earth while in orbit is cool, it is not scalable. It certainly wasn’t relatable. Recently, however, people other than analysts, govvies, and business developers are becoming more aware of the products that EO satellites produce and have begun to use them.
Satellite images aren’t just for magazine covers and newspapers anymore.
People share satellite imagery routinely and easily via social media sites in 2023. With the most recent conflicts, it seems as if satellite pictures of various battlefields, city centers, and borders make their way to the public daily.
Some images defy the conventional notion of a picture in some instances, betraying the originating technology used to “take a picture.” Something… several somethings, have changed since 1972. More specifically, something has changed since 2013.
While EO/RS satellite deployments increased since 1972, the increases were modest until they weren’t. The leaps in commercial EO/RS satellite deployments started after 2013.
In 2011, about 30 EO/RS satellites had been deployed. A civil or military organization operated each one of those satellites. There were about 32 EO/RS satellite deployments in 2013, primarily for military and civil purposes. But at least two were commercially operated.
Commercial Growth/Less Mission Variety
In 2014, Planet Labs (Planet) deployed 37 of its Dove EO satellites into orbit, including 28 from the International Space Station. That was more than the EO/RS operator total from 2013—from a single new commercial operator.
From 2016 through September 2023, over 1,400 EO satellites have been deployed. On average, EO/RS satellite operators deployed ~175 satellites annually during those years. And, since 2016, commercial companies deployed 71% (nearly 1000) of all EO/RS satellite deployments, a shift from the 100% military and civil shares in 2011.
Looking at satellite mass from 2019 through September 2023, a twist emerges in the story. EO/RS satellite operators deployed an overall estimated satellite mass of over 420,000 kilograms. Of that, satellites from commercial operators accounted for nearly 35,300 kg. That’s just 8% of all EO/RS satellite mass deployed into the Earth’s orbit during that time.
However, civil and military EO/RS satellite operators are nearly evenly split in their mass deployments (~185,000 kg to ~200,000 kg). Government EO/RS satellites had an average mass of almost 1000 kg apiece versus the commercial satellite average of ~58 kg.
The significant mass differences and results may eventually answer whether satellite quality (assumed because of the increased mass) trumps quantity—or whether satellite quantity has a quality all of its own.
Government space operators embrace conservative practices. While civil institutions were among the first to use small satellites and cubesats, they viewed them as useful only for technology demonstrations and research. Military organizations viewed them similarly.
On the other hand, large satellite, government-run EO/RS programs have a life of their own, many continuing past their usefulness. They are expensive, too.
However, civil and military organizations appear to recognize some excellent reasons for using small satellites (smallsats) for essential missions. With nearly 1,000 commercial EO/RS smallsats in orbit, those reasons would have been hard for government organizations to ignore.
While the overall mass of commercial optical sensor satellites is low compared to government-run systems, the companies operate about triple the number of satellites. But it’s not just that there are a lot of commercial EO/RS satellites orbiting the Earth. It’s also that there is a variety of EO/RS satellites.
The commercial missions aren’t as varied as the missions for government-run EO/RS satellites. However, that should be expected considering the fifty-year+ head start in space operations that governments have. Also, not all government missions are profitable.
Government EO/RS satellites conduct missions that run the gamut, from optical Earth observations through infrared missile detection to weather and environmental data collection using an array of sensors. The commercial EO/RS missions don’t equal the mission varieties of civil and military satellites. But then they shouldn’t, as EO/RS businesses will (hopefully) have different customers—preferably in greater numbers. Almost 80 companies worldwide deployed EO/RS satellites into orbit from 2019 through September 2023.
Of the commercial satellite mission categories, about half use 15 or more satellites in their constellations. Unsurprisingly, optical satellites comprise the greatest share of EO/RS satellite deployments from 2019-September 2023, at about 450 satellites.
Radar satellites take the next highest percentage of EO/RS satellite deployments during that time—slightly over 50. Nearly the same number of radio frequency monitoring satellites have been deployed.
Weather satellites tend to have multiple payloads aboard, from radio occultation receivers to actual optical sensors. Surprisingly, deployments of satellites with infrared sensors nearly equal the 20 commercial weather satellites deployed during the same period.
The following focuses on three EO/RS satellite categories with the highest share of deployments: optical, radar, and radio frequency monitoring (RFM).
Optical Deployments
Commercial satellites with optical payloads make up the bulk of EO/RS satellites deployed. Their use outpaces satellites with radar payloads (the second largest EO/RS category deployed) by 10X.
However, there is no smooth increase of deployed satellites in orbit. Instead, the chart below shows the “lumps” of deployments in time, a characteristic of deploying many smallsats from a single rocket, such as SpaceX’s Smallsat Rideshare launches.
Nearly 50 companies are operating optical satellites. All of them are using smallsats as the platform to host their optical sensors. The relatively lesser costs of smallsats—manufacturing, launch, and ground system options—create opportunities for U.S. space companies and companies from other nations.
For example, no one will be surprised that Planet leads in optical satellite deployments, with over 200 deployed from 2019 to September 2023. However, some might be surprised to know that a company in China, Chang Guang Satellite Technology Co., is in second place with over 110 satellites. Crossing the globe again, in third is the Argentinian company Satellogic, with not quite 40 deployed satellites.
None of the optical satellite companies are deploying satellites in numbers rivaling SpaceX’s thousands of Starlink internet relay satellites. While 350 commercial satellites with optical payloads seem high, especially compared to their military and civil counterparts, those 350 are spread among companies from three nations.
Radar Deployments
Commercial satellites with radar payloads increased between 2019 and September 2023. But they aren’t close to optical’s growth, reaching slightly over 50 satellites deployed over those years. The deployments over that time are lumpy, too.
The scale is somewhat smaller for commercial radar satellites versus the optical satellite graph, not even reaching ten satellite deployments during any month from 2019 through September 2023.
The company spread is not quite as international, either. However, the eight operators with satellites in orbit come from five nations.
Two nations host the top three satellite radar operators. Finland’s ICEYE has over 20 radar satellites in orbit, while the U.S.’s Capella Space comes in second with 10. Umbra Labs (also from the U.S.) comes in third with six. These are all low numbers when compared with optical satellite deployments.
RFM Deployments
Companies operating RFM satellites also grew, deploying about the same number of satellites as those with radar payloads. That is surprising, considering that RFM seems to have no history of being used in civil missions (whereas radar and optical do). The lumpiness in satellite deployments persists, as depicted in the chart below.
The scale is a little larger than the one used in the radar chart. Still, the number of deployed RFM satellites comes to nearly the same level as radar satellites: 50. There are fewer RFM satellite companies than radar, however, with five operators originating from four countries: China, France, Luxembourg, and the U.S.
Of those five, the top three are HawkEye360 (~20 satellites), Kleos Space (15+ satellites), and Unseenlabs (~10 satellites). The small number of companies is probably due to a lesser-understood technology serving government customers, such as law enforcement, signals intelligence groups, and preservation groups.
Superimposing the charts shows how many more satellites with optical payloads are deployed than the other two smaller business sectors.
Room for More EO/RS Satellites?
Overall, the deployment rates are healthy but humble, considering the international variety of competitors with in-orbit satellites.
Optical satellites seem to be in the lead because it was perhaps the most straightforward and visible (no pun intended) space technology for people to use. Most of the public doesn’t require an “interpreter” for what an optical satellite image portrays.
However, commercial satellite radar and RFM operators must do some extra work. They accept that work while also growing the constellations necessary to make it more relevant. Their technologies and missions are very different and almost border on the unnecessarily arcane for the public.
The rapid increase in the use of optical satellite payloads bodes well for the EO/RS industry. If Planet believes ~200 spacecraft are an ideal number to have in an optical constellation, then perhaps logically, we can expect others to attempt to reach or even exceed that number eventually.
More rivals with more assets will grow the customer pool. Based on the international spread and interest and the inevitable strategies from competitors, more optical satellites will be deployed into orbit.
Radar satellite operators require nearly the same number of satellites to attain the revisit rates their optical cousins achieved. RFM operators will need at least three times that number (if the business takes off). Some of these EO/RS startups might not be able to afford more satellites, so competitors will jump in to take advantage of that weakness. Either way, there’s growth potential there.
EO/RS satellite growth is not just from adoption by one nation’s company but by many countries (24) and their companies (nearly 80) with enough interest to build and deploy satellites. Said another way, not that many nations have companies operating EO/RS satellites yet.
Eventually, then, there will be more companies from other countries coming forward, deploying larger, possibly better, systems. Quite a few universities have students building satellites with EO/RS and amateur radio payloads, which seeds ideas for those generations to start their own EO/RS companies.
Those new startups might even better understand what customers want from EO/RS products, which brings us back to the Blue Marble.
Like that image, current satellite imagery doesn’t have much of a relationship or use in my life. This is despite the fact they are more widely disseminated than ever through communication platforms that were inconceivable when the Blue Marble was taken.
These many commercial satellites take interesting pictures, but they tend to be part of the everyday noise and not something that rises above it. While I understand I’m not representative, perhaps many more people view imagery similarly.
With over a thousand satellites in orbit, commercial EO/RS companies have plenty of opportunities to discover what people want. It will take imagination and diversity, hopefully resulting in something more valuable than the Blue Marble and more inspiring than a John F. Kennedy speech.
John Holst is the Editor/Analyst of Ill-Defined Space, dedicated to analysis of activities, policies, and businesses in the space sector.
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