Rising Favorability for Red Planet Exploration? Mars Polling Archive Overview
Image credit: NASA
Mars is omnipresent when it comes to space exploration. Mesmerizing our night skies since the dimmest days of prehistory, it now occupies an outsized center of gravity in our modern space consciousness. Mars is the heart of NASA’s hunt for life as well as an impressive array of increasingly advanced orbiters, landers, rovers, and now helicopters. Mars has steadily risen in prominence in the public eye thanks to awe-inspiring missions like the Perseverance rover as well as the success and media impact of Elon Musk and SpaceX. It is the only remotely habitable planet close to Earth where we may even conceive of building up a second foundation for human civilization and a safe haven for the unique biology of Earth.
The American public holds fluid views of Mars exploration, often indifferent yet with hardcore supporters and opponents. Overall it appears to be becoming increasingly favorable, and rising intensity in public support for Mars exploration could have transformational impacts for support in Congress and the wider American space policy-making agenda. There is a significant body of public polling available that enables a detailed analysis of public opinion of Mars while revealing critically important questions for the future.
Sources
This analysis utilized 11 separate public polls taken from June 2018 through July 2022, although Gallup polling references data as far back as 1969. As always much thanks and appreciation to the firms who conducted this vital work.
Questions Asked
There are 7 key questions asked in these polls, allowing a detailed breakdown and analysis of how the public views the entire concept of Mars and our exploration of it. Please note that polling numbers aren’t absolutes, especially when there is only 1 question available in the data with which to analyze a topic. To fully understand the answers to these questions it will be important to seek follow up polling information in the future.
Do you favor sending astronauts to Mars?
This question is both highly important in terms of influencing Mars policymaking but also highly reflective of where the public mindset is concerning Mars exploration as an idea. Not only are policymakers keen to act on priorities the public favors, but this is a ‘gut check’ question for respondents that gets to their core beliefs on the issue.
Do you favor or oppose the United States sending astronauts to Mars? (YouGov July 2021)
Favor 53%
Oppose 19%
Don’t Know 28%
Would you favor or oppose the United States setting aside money for the project of landing astronauts on Mars? (Gallup)
June 2019 54% Favor - 46% Oppose
July 1999 43% Favor - 54% Oppose
July 1969 39% Favor - 53% Oppose
These data points reveal a few major conclusions. First, crewed missions to Mars have never historically been popular but did have a decently sized base of support. Second, they are more popular now, although by only a modest majority.
This is a story of a slow rise in public favorability towards crewed missions to Mars, having reached a majority opinion sometime in the mid 2010s. However the exact reasons as to why public opinion has become more favorable is unclear. What is clear is that rising public favorability gives greater political incentive for elected leaders in Congress to invest in the Mars exploration program.
How important of a priority is it for the US to send astronauts to Mars?
This question is slightly different than the previous one, as it more accurately gauges the intensity with which the public favors Mars exploration, rather than just basic favorable or unfavorable.
How important of a priority should it be for the US government to send human astronauts to explore Mars? (Morning Consult February 2021)
A top priority 7%
Important but lower priority 26%
Not too important of a priority 39%
Should not be done 16%
Don’t know 12%
Total ‘Important/Top Priority’ 33%
How important is it for the US space program to send astronauts to Mars? (AP-NORC May 2019)
Extremely important 8.5%
Very important 18.5%
Moderately important 34%
Not too important 22.5%
Not at all important 15.5%
Total ‘Very Important’ 27%
Total ‘Important’ 61%
Should sending astronauts to Mars be a top priority for NASA? (Pew 2018)
Yes 18%
No 82%
These data reveals a few interesting points.
First, there is clearly 20-30% of the population that strongly supports crewed missions to Mars but it still ranks among the lowest overall priorities in the public eye. This consistent base of support shows up in poll after poll, and is in line with other analysis about the number of ‘high interest’ space supporters among the general public. This should not be interpreted that a majority of people oppose crewed missions to Mars (they don’t), Mars missions are just less popular than other space priorities such as asteroid defense.
Second, it is clear the public does not have strong feelings about sending crews to Mars but isn’t completely indifferent either. Other priorities such as asteroid defense and climate monitoring often garner much wider and more intense support from the general public. Yet over 60% rated a crewed Mars mission as some level of importance in the AP-NORC data, a significant level of at least lukewarm support.
This group of lukewarm Mars mission supporters could be highly important, pushing public support into majority territory and changing the calculus for policymakers in Congress. Understanding this demographic moving forward will be critically important to Mars advocates.
Would you personally want to travel to Mars?
This is perhaps the most personally revealing question on the list, getting respondents to think about their own lives and whether they would ever take the journey to Mars themselves.
Most said no.
If the Moon or Mars was colonized in your lifetime, would you want to travel there? (Quinnipiac May 2021)
Yes 32%
No 66%
Net -34%
Would you want to live in a Mars colony? (YouGov May 2021)
Yes 25%
No 62%
Don’t Know 13%
Net -37%
If you had a chance to travel to Mars, would you? (AP-NORC May 2019)
Yes 31%
No 66.5%
Don’t Know 2%
Net -35.5%
It is clear the majority of Americans do not see themselves as potential Martians, but ⅓ is not an insignificant amount of the population. That translates into tens of millions who at this moment dream of living on the rusty plains of Mars.
Do you believe there is life on Mars?
This question is one of the primary reasons for our historical interest in Mars and our present day methodical, persistent exploration of it. Has it ever hosted life? If so, did it manage to survive to the present day?
What comes closest to your current view of life on Mars? (YouGov February 2021)
There is currently life on Mars 13%
Used to be, but no longer 24%
Never has been 19%
Don’t Know 44%
Total ‘Life At Some Point’ 37%
The general public seems genuinely split into sizable factions on the question of life on Mars. Every range of perspective is represented, and it seems fitting that the single most popular response is “Don’t Know.”
Who is best prepared to send astronauts to Mars?
This question captures how the public views the who behind going to Mars.
Which of the following is best prepared to handle sending human astronauts to Mars? (Morning Consult February 2021)
Federal Space Agencies 21%
International Space Partnerships 27%
Private Space Companies 17%
None of the Above 10%
Don’t Know 25%
These results reveal a public with divergent loyalties and mixed feelings about who is best able to get humans to Mars. It may be a bit surprising to see ‘International Space Partnerships’ as the option with the highest level of support. Perhaps the rising visibility of the International Space Station or the Artemis Accords has the public in an international frame of mind in space, or it could be an acknowledgement of the sheer complexity of the mission. The full dynamics underlying this question require further exploration.
Which should be the higher priority, the Moon or Mars?
One of the fiercest debates in the space community in the last 30 years has been Moon versus Mars. Should NASA go back to the Moon to build up the infrastructure to then send humans to Mars? Or is that a waste of time and the best course is to focus 100% on Mars now?
The public has a clear favorite.
Which should be a higher priority, returning to the Moon or going to Mars, or neither? (AP-NORC May 2019)
Return to the Moon 18%
Going to Mars 37%
Neither 43.5%
Combined Moon & Mars 55%
Of these 5 space exploration scenarios, which do you think is the best use of NASA’s time, resources, and energy? (SurveyMonkey/Business Insider December 2018)
Exploration of Mars with robots 32%
Exploration of Mars with humans 25%
Exploration of some other destination 22%
Exploration of the Moon with humans 12%
Exploration of the Moon with robots 9%
Combined Moon 21%
Combined Mars 57%
When asked to choose between going back to the Moon or going on to Mars, a greater share of the public chooses the Red Planet. While an exact number is difficult to pin down, the preference for Mars is clear.
It is interesting to note the combined 55% for Moon & Mars and the relatively high 43.5% for ‘Neither’ in the AP=NORC poll. That would be among the higher marks for opposition to crewed missions, and even then it is in the minority by 12%.
How likely do you think it is that NASA will get to Mars by 2040?
This question speaks to the level of optimism Americans have in getting to Mars in the near future, and how much confidence they have in NASA.
The public appears surprisingly bullish.
How likely do you think it is that NASA will meet its goal of getting people to Mars by 2040? (YouGov July 2022)
Very Likely 15%
Somewhat Likely 34%
Not Very Likely 20%
Not At All Likely 12%
Not Sure 18%
Total ‘Likely’ 49%
Only 1 in 10 say ‘Not At All’, with roughly half holding some degree of optimism the 2040 timeline will be kept. This optimistic stance would be in line with recent rises in favorability towards Mars missions, although the exact trendlines are not clear with only limited data.
Mars ‘Personas’
Analyzing the public responses to these questions reveals distinct groups within the public when it comes to Mars. These cohorts have unique motivations, beliefs, and levels of interest when it comes to exploring and sending humans to Mars.
Martians - These are the hardcore 20-30%, the High Interest space fans who see themselves personally on the Red Planet. They can name check Mars missions and likely have a favorite crater, mountain, or river delta.
Curious Spectators - These 20-30% are favorable to NASA and Mars exploration but don’t see themselves as part of that story. Their support is less intense and more fluid (and modestly subject to variables like cost).
Disinterested Earthers - These 20-40% are not interested in Mars but not strongly opposed to it either. They tend to be Earth-centric in their priorities (asteroid defense, climate change) and highly motivated by budgetary concerns.
The ‘Never Mars’ Crowd - The hardcore 15-20% that oppose most if not all space exploration, Mars included. They have zero interest in space and there are few avenues to engage with and gain their support.
These groups are not rigid, and their relative size has fluctuated with time. Their existence is only modestly mapped, with significant questions remaining about their composition, growth over time, and fundamental motivations and beliefs.
These polls provide significant crosstab data which allows a detailed demographic analysis of the responses to the questions, which is the logical next step for this analysis.
Questions for the Future
There are many pressing questions regarding the future of American public opinion towards Mars exploration.
What is the exact makeup of the four ‘persona’ groups? What implications does this have in political, social, and generational contexts?
Is it possible to better understand the relative size of these groups and their changes over time? Which are shrinking, and which are growing?
What data exists on the deeper motivations and beliefs behind these groups, specifically the hardcore Mars proponents and opponents?
Will recent favorable trends for Mars exploration continue? Are they demographically resilient or vulnerable?
What are the political and policy-making implications of these recent trends?
The exploration and answers to these questions will offer deeper insights into public favorability towards Mars exploration into the 2030s and beyond with potentially profound impacts.
Patrick Chase is a space writer, political junkie, and lifelong space enthusiast.
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